A reflection on the Los Angeles fires and our collective memory

As published in Infrastructure Investor - see original article, here.

Some say the Santa Ana winds, also called the devil winds, is the cause, while others will investigate the electric utilities whose transmission lines may have ignited the blaze. Still others will point to the failure of water systems to support the impossible notion of dousing entire cities in a single night. But the true cause of the latest in a string of ‘first ever’ wildfire events is not the failure of water pipes or electric lines but the failure of our collective memory.

Despite living in an age where information is abundant and easily accessible, we seem to have lost our capacity to learn from the past and apply those lessons to foresee future outcomes. We watched past tragedies like those in Fort McMurray, Canada; Santa Rosa and Napa in California; and Lahaina in Hawaii on our phones together. We’ve seen winds fan the flames, transforming fires into their own weather systems and, chewing through everything in the ‘wildland/urban interface’ or WUI. Yet, despite this wealth of knowledge, we struggle to absorb the lessons these events provide.

The notorious Santa Ana devil winds are not a novel phenomenon. What is new is the unprecedented heat of 2024, a year that now stands as the hottest on record. With the Los Angeles basin parched after eight months without rain, the stage was set for this disaster, while we all watched, knowing pretty much what would happen. And we know what will happen now, if the rains do come, with mudslides putting the finishing touches on the toxic waste dump that was Pacific Palisades and Altadena.

When we fail to learn the lessons of the past and clearly consider our current situation, we are doomed to repeat the same behaviour (or lack thereof) unless and until we recalibrate our approach. This is particularly dangerous for infrastructure investors, whose mission is to acquire permanent, long-dated, immovable assets that are also sitting ducks for physical, regulatory and policy risks. In our roles we must grasp that our future hinges not solely on the structures we buy and build but on the foresight with which we build them.

Adapting to an evolving climate Infrastructure – whether housing, highways or power facilities – must be designed and built with a realistic view on the evolving climate and its attendant challenges. Imagine constructing a toll road along a coast that routinely succumbs to the rising sea; the folly is apparent. Yet, this metaphor mirrors our current predicament, where homes continue to sit in increasingly vulnerable neighbourhoods subject to the threats of a changing climate.

The time has come for a paradigm shift in how we predict and plan for the future. Our environmental experiment – pumping untold quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere – has yielded results that are as unpredictable as they are alarming. While it is true that not every climatic anomaly can be traced directly back to this experiment, the overarching trend is undeniable: our world is growing warmer, wetter and weirder.

The path forwards lies in asking the right questions, informed by the best possible analytical tools. This is the furthest thing from what we used to call ESG. This is existential and now, arguably, more urgent than considering leverage, interest rates and other historic cornerstones of real asset risk mitigation. What if a fire breaks out? How intense could it become? What measures can we take to protect our assets during the Santa Ana wind season? These questions aren’t new, yet we’ve repeatedly failed to address them effectively.

If we rebuild Altadena and the Palisades without learning from past mistakes, expecting different outcomes, we are engaging in what can only be described as lunacy. It’s time to rekindle our collective memory, learn from the recent past and ensure our future is not just a repetition of it. Together, let’s embrace the art and science of more effective prediction and a new approach to climate adaptive infrastructure. As we grapple with these challenges, let us strive to rekindle our collective memory, learning from the past to illuminate a safer, more resilient future.